Key Points from the Iran Crisis Guide
Overview:
1. Iranians- prideful about history and culture/
2. Due to pride have strong nationalistic feelings
3. Civilian nuclear desires
4. Military Nuclear desires could instability in region
5. Support for extremist groups in Middle east and Islamic world
6. Abuse of Human rights
7. During revolution, hardcore Islamist gain control leaving some groups dissatisfied
8. Many are disillusioned with the current Political system
9. The wish to export beliefs has many Arab nations nervous
10. Has significant alliance network
11. Trying to find “elbow room” to exercise power
12. Consider Israel and US to be oppressors
13. Israel feels Iran is a threat to its security
14. Some members of UN Security Council feel Iran is a threat
15. China/ Russia view Iran favorably and as a way to expand their own power
16. International community feel Iran has right to peaceful nuclear power
17. Many nations do not feel Iran has need for enrichment programs
18. Most Iranians believe they have right to enrichment
19. Iran is sustained by oil revenues
20. If oil prices drop, Iran will have to change
21. Sanctions can cause this drop in revenues
22. Revolutionary Guard is now the most powerful group in Iran since 2009 coup
Time Line
1. Persian Empire (includes Iran) formed under Cyrus in 550 B.C.
2. . Sassanian Culture from the Sassanian Empire (224 A.D.) still influences Iranians today
3. Beginning of Islamic rule under Arabs in 650 A.D.
4. Shiite Islam is born around this time and is still point of contention for Muslims
5. Mongols conquer and rule Iran in the 12 century/ embrace Islam
6. Safavid dynasty gain control, claim decent from Shia Imam and Iran becomes Shia
7. Treaty of Qasr-e Shirin establish the basic modern border of Iran/Iraq
8. Iran wars with Russians, Mongols and Afghans in 17th century
9. In 19th century, Shia clerics begin to gain power
10. In beginning of 20th century, Iran has a parliament (Majlis)
11. Oil becomes a major export under British Control
12. Reza Shah Pahlavi becomes the new leader in 1925/ reduces cleric influence\
13. Limits freedoms during WWI
14. 1935 Persia changes name to Iran
15. Reza Shah is forced to abdicate in WWII by Britain
16. His son Mohammed Reza Shah takes his place, clerics gain power
17. Have strained relations with Soviet Union
18. Mohammed Reza Shah recognizes Israel so they can support each other against the Soviet Union
19. In 1951 Iran nationalizes oil industry under Prime Minister Mossadeq
20. Mossadeq is overthrown with support of US, causing Clerics and Iranians to view US suspiciously
21. U.S. supports Iran peaceful nuclear energy
22. White revolution modernizes Iran
23. Revolution overthrows Shah in 1979/ result of oppression
24. U.S embassy is taken hostage, Iran and U.S. sever relations
25. Iran/ Iraq war sees half a million die.
26. Iran supports Hezbollah against Israel in Lebanon
27. Iran condemns terrorist attack on September 11, 2001.
28. Bush condemns Iran as part of an “Axis of evil”
The Iranian Regime
1. Iranian people want to join 21st century
2. Council of Guardians controls who runs for president
3. Clergy is not unified at this time
4. There is still fire burning for democracy
5. Presidents often clash with Supreme leader over power
6. Conservatives have taken over the political system of Iran
7. Green movement in 2009 was not beginning of democracy movement
8. Green movement supported by youth/ university graduates/ women
Iran’s Nuclear Program
1. Iran has missile capabilities that could attack Israel, southern EEU and India
2. Economic hardships are moving faster than nuclear development
Analyzing options
1. Diplomacy has been difficult with Iran
2. Religion is preventing diplomacy according to some
3. Demonizing the US is a way politicians in Iran gain support
4. Sanctions have mostly not effected Iranian policy
5. There are connections between economics and Iranian behavior
6. Covert action can be very successful against Iran
7. Downside is how much it is successful
8. Could turn Iranians against the U.S.
9. Threshold for US military action against Iran is higher than for Israel
10. What would be the Iranian response to an attack? Terrorist attacks/ Missiles?
11. Could cause increased Iranian support for the regime
12. Hard to support moderate opposition could discredit that movement inside Iran
13. Monetary support is pointless to opposition as they are well funded.
14. Public diplomacy should focus on communicating with ordinary Iranians.
Challenge of Iran
1. Iran is far more complex than Afghanistan or North Korea
2. Strategically, Iran is central to commercial and military developments
3. Has largest armed force in Middle East
4. 4th largest arsenal in the middle east
5. Historically, Iran has had exposure to many different cultures
6. Shia clerics represent Allah, unlike Sunni
7. voter fraud in 2009 caused the massive protests
8. Iran has historic fear of foreigners
9. Nuclear energy viewed by people of Iran as key to modern development.
10. Iran holds 10% of oil reserves.