In a recent Wall Street Journal article Dave Shambaugh predicted the collapse of the Chinese communist system.  in this article he states that the parties days are limited and the countdown to disaster has already begun. This may seem extreme but drawing a look at history the Chinese state has never been as stable as they like to present. Throughout its history China has been ravaged by Civil War, internal strife and power struggles. This predisposition for violence coupled with a growing divide between the two systems in China could set the state up for collapse. Over the past two decades the PRC has experienced reforms in all aspects in life. The economic reforms, however, have been much more extreme than the reforms in governance. This has led to a growing divide between the economic elite and the average citizens and even government officials. He also states that many of these elites have stronger roots in the United States and Europe than in China and would be likely to leave the mainland at the fist sign of trouble. Mr. Shambaugh also comments on the problems of corruption and repression but these factors can all be summarized in one statement. Political stability  relies on consent of the governed. In China public toleration of the government is tenuous at best. President Xi must work to strengthen this feeling if the state and the party will continue to exist.

Following Wednesday’s virtual exchange with the students in Hong Kong I would like to take a moment to reflect on what was said. There was many shared opinions regarding the necessity of democracy to hold a government accountable. For the most part both sides felt that democratic elections were important for government accountability but are not the only or even most effective way to hold governments accountable to their citizens. There was one group who did state that they did not feel that elections were necessarily useful in holding governments accountable and accountability can very easily be achieved without democratic elections. They supported their stance using the dictatorship in Singapore which is very in tune with the needs of its populous and discounted the necessity of democratic elections using failed democratic systems in Greece and Thailand. This is a problematic method of research by comparing the best case scenario of authoritarianism and the worst cases of democracy cannot truly by comparable. The main complaint of many of the students was about the election of the chief executive in 2017 that there will be free elections in Hong Kong but the candidates for the election will be chosen by the PRC. This seems like a very foreign idea but the point must be made that the republican candidate for the Governor of Virginia was not chosen by the populous by instead by a committee within the party itself.  This trend should be watched to preserve the American democratic system.

“One country; two systems” has been the motto for the relationship between China and its partially autonomous territories of Hong Kong and Taiwan since the 1980’s. The British took over Hong Kong island in the 1840’s following Chinese defeat in the first Opium war. Hong Kong was a British colony for over one hundred years until it was handed back over to the Chinese government in 1997. When the British took over the island they also acquired a 99 year lease on the northern peninsula that sat just above the island. When this lease expired the British government sought to renew the lease and continue occupation of the territory. However the Chinese government refused to extend the lease and therefore the British decided to hand over the entire territory when the lease formally expired in 1997. In the years leading up to the handover the British government made many advances in democracy on the island to undermine Chinese influence in the region. They started democratic elections and established a system known as the basic law, while also further developing a capitalist economy in the city. China was forced to maintain these freedoms that the citizens of Hong Kong enjoyed after the takeover so they developed a policy of one country; two systems. However, now that China is more powerful why does it not try to bring Hong Kong politics closer to that of the mainland. The first reason that cannot be discounted for the Chinese tolerance of this system is the pressure from the international community, especially the United States and the United Kingdom. The bigger reason, however, is the economic benefits that the mainland receives from the capitalist economy of the island. Any forceful change of freedoms for the people of Hong Kong would certainly be incredibly distributive for the economic benefits that are gained by Chinese businessmen with investments on the island. Therefore, the reason that China does not bring Hong Kong closer to Beijing is a classic case of if it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.

Unlike the United States people in China tend to have a more favorable view of their central government than their local officials. Much of this stems from corruption and exploitation of rural peoples by the local party cadre. Most rural governments in China have felt the pain of having to do more with less money. Over the past ten to twenty years the central government has directed its attention to that of a more global perspective. The PRC has dedicated more funds to defense spending and expanding China’s international presence. The victim of this redistribution of funding has mainly been the local governments who lack adequate funding to provide vital services such as education and infrastructure to their citizens. The exception to provide these services, however, has not diminished and has left local authorities searching for new ways to raise funds. Many of these officials have resorted to extortion of the local populous. without elections it can be very difficult for populations in rural areas to keep their local governments in check. Despite the absence of elections the main way that people can hold their governments accountable is through collective action. In China these have tended to form into protest movements. For one of these movements to take root, however, it requires leadership. Opposition leadership is something that many people avoid in a state like China were punishments for upsetting the harmonious society can be steep.  But if a protests leader emerges and becomes effective, through mobilization and recruitment of individuals sympathetic to the cause.  If these movements can overcome initial government repression they can bring about real change and reform, either through the help of the higher ranking central government or through the powers of sympathetic elites or NGOs.

Growing up in rural Virginia my perspective on governance is differs perhaps from the general population of the United States. In many parts of the country the most powerful figure in local governance would be someone like a mayor or a city council. This is not the case in the majority of small towns in the commonwealth. In Appomattox county and like the majority of the rural areas in the state, the two most powerful officials are the county sheriff and the director of the board of supervisors. Growing up I was had a unique perspective on local governance than my peers as these two positions were held by my Father and my Uncle. As I read about the strong distrust that people in China have towards there local governments it continues to surprise my because in rural parts of the United States it is exactly the opposite. People in Appomattox trust their elected officials much more than they do their president or congressman. They hunt together, shop at the same stores, their kids go to the same schools. Accountability of the people towards their officials is everywhere. Open dialogue between citizens and government is not only allowed but strongly encouraged. I remember when a simple trip to the grocery store with my uncle would take hours as he would stop and patiently listen to the grievances of any person who would approach him.  In these rural communities the distrust is directed towards people in Washington not the men in county hall.  and many times federal agencies would have a significant degree of difficulty operating within the county. Federal Law enforcement in particular was a victim of this trust as there have been numerous occasions where suspects would refuse to cooperate with even state law enforcement without my father present. However, the ultimate way that local officials are held accountable in the United States are through elections. Every four years my household has gone in campaign mode to an extreme extent. Local politics can be fierce and incumbents are regularly voted out of office. Local citizens are able to closely discuss concerns with candidates and hold their officials accountable through these elections.

“In protest leadership in rural China” , Lianjiang and O’Brien reveal the inner workings of most protest movements that take place in China. The chapter focuses first on what protest leaders do. This can be summarized under the lens of the collective action problem. The CAP states that people are unlikely to take part in a social movement out of the rational fear that they will be the only one who participates. The role of protest leaders is to overcome the collective action problem by shaping individual grievances into collective claims, recruiting and organizing supporters and orchestrating plans. They then make interesting statements on how protest leaders tend to avoid saying they have any leadership role whatsoever. Politically charged terms such as “leader” or “organization” can lead to singled out repression on the leader and effectively end the protest movement. Thus many protest leaders choose to try and portray themselves as simply one of the the large group people involved in the movement.

Over the last 30 years, since the beginning of the reform period in China, the eastern portion of the state has experienced tremendous economic growth largely due to modernization and industrialization. People are becoming richer in the cities and are enjoying a much higher standard of living than in the past. However in the western rural regions a much different scenario is playing out. It is true that the countryside has seen noticeable economic growth and the standard of living of many farmers has improved with the introduction of widespread water, electricity and household appliances. However, there is a widening gap between the city dwellers and those who farm the countryside. These differences are highlighted in Teresa Wright’s chapter “Tenuous tolerance in China’s countryside.” Wright states that while both sides are getting richer the income gap is growing wider by the day. Also the differences include ideas on governance. Citizens in rural areas tend to be strongly critical of the local governments due to consent corruption and unlawful acts taken against them. However despite this many rural citizens remain loyal to the central government and believe that it has their best interests in mind. The party tries in many ways to keep this rural loyalty and this is shown in a short clip by state run television network CCTV https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0OOlydEOxY

In section three of country driving, Hessler takes a different path across China than he had in his first two journeys. He states that in his first trip he went west, in search of history following the great wall as in snaked across Chinese mountains and plains. On his second trip he headed north in search of a connection to a simpler agrarian lifestyle that has been quickly disappearing from Chinese culture over the past several decades.But in section three “The Factory” Hessler points sets his sights south bound in search of the future in the industrial coastal regions. The most interesting thing that i felt occurred in the first third of this section was the account on the industrial towns that only produced one product. There was a town that produced only playground equipment, one that made buttons for clothing and another that made neckties. This idea of one town making only one main product seemed very strange to me at fist until I realized that this occurs in the United States as well only with sometimes less obscure products(Automobiles in Detroit). The main story transitioned to a man starting a factory that will produce bra rings and the immense technology necessary to produce such a simple product is quite remarkable. China is a land of manufacturing and its economy revolves around providing cheap products to western powers. These items can sometimes seem so insignificant to the average American that the fact that entire towns revolve around there production can be mind boggling. However with enough start up capital and the right timing there is quite a bit of money to be made in the obscurest of products in mainland China.

In his chapter, “From Revolutionary Party to a Governing Party”, Wang ChangJiang, discusses the ways that the Chinese Communist Party attempted to transition from a revolutionary party to a governing party. It is interesting to note that while the idea of a party system was adopted from Western Society, particularly the United States, however the variables that influenced the outcome of the communist parties where almost entirely eastern, especially from the Soviet Union. Wang stated that there were three main factors that influenced the development of the Chinese Communist Party. The Communist Party of the Soviet Union, the policies of Sun Yat-sen, and Chinese culture and history. Wang stated that in the west the founding of political parties has historically been a strong step in solidifying democracy. However in China parties have a different purpose. The political party in China is used to provide a unifying factor for the vast nation of China. Also democratic rule cannot be ruled out as a classification of the current political regime in Beijing depending of the definition of democracy. In China the bottom level of political leaders are elected directly by the populous. Then those representatives go on to elect the representatives for the house above them and so on. If democracy is defined simply as rule of the people, then China is a democratic society if only extremely indirectly. Also Wang makes the claim that Chinese people are willing to accept a more powerful government than westerners due to the fact that they see the government as more of a parent and feel that if the government is large then they will reap more benefits. While this can perhaps explain why the Chinese are more tolerant of intrusive government than United States citizens, this completely ignores the natural human tendency to want greater personal liberties and rejects recent survey data that shows that many Chinese citizens would support a reduction in government control. As Diamond says in his comment, the CCP will need to listen to this data and public opinion to remain relevant in the future. If true reform does not occur the ‘revolutionary party may itself become a casualty of yet another revolution in China’s bloody history.