For some, the protests that erupted in November 2013 may have come as a surprise. For many others, it was only ever a matter of time before tensions boiled over in a country that spent the post-Soviet era zigzagging between east and west. In 1994, Ukraine became the first formerly Soviet republic to experience a peaceful transfer of power via the ballot box, when Leonid Kuchma won a presidential election, replacing Leonid Kravchuk. A new constitution was adopted in 1996, but the government struggled to implement reforms and the economy stagnated. Despite rising dissatisfaction with his leadership, Kuchma was re-elected in 1999, but a protest movement calling for his resignation gained momentum in the early 2000s. A presidential election in 2004 initially showed the pro-Russia candidate, Viktor Yanukovych, a former governor of Donetsk region, to be the winner. However, evidence of widespread fraud prompted mass protests in Kiev which came to be known as the Orange revolution and brought about a new election.Victory for Viktor Yushchenko, a political opponent of Kuchma and former prime minister, raised many people’s hopes that Ukraine would move towards the west, liberalising its political and economic systems, but his reformist coalition lacked cohesion and failed to implement significant reforms. A party led by Yanukovych won parliamentary elections in 2006, and after prolonged manoeuvring he was named prime minister. Political and economic uncertainty persisted. In 2009, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine amid a dispute over Kiev’s debt payments, with the dispute interrupting gas deliveries to many EU states. In 2010, Yanukovych was elected president and steered Ukraine back towards closer relations with Russia. He quickly pushed through constitutional changes that enhanced presidential authority, and took action to curb dissent. In 2011, Yulia Tymoshenko, a Yanukovych foe and a former prime minister, was jailed. In late 2013, Yanukovych backed away from signing an association agreement with the EU, prompting large-scale protests, which came together in the Euromaidan movement. In February 2014, Yanukovych fled the capital, Kiev, and was subsequently impeached by parliament. A pro-western coalition took power. In late February, Russian troops, in unmarked uniforms, moved into the Crimean peninsula to support local separatists and in March, Russia annexed Crimea. Widespread instability hit eastern regions of Ukraine, as separatist elements, with suspected backing from Russia, took control of several cities and towns. In late May, the pro-western billionaire Petro Poroshenko won a decisive victory in the presidential election, vowing to restore law and order to the east.

Georgia has had a turbulent post-Soviet experience, to put it mildly, beset by separatist conflicts in two territories, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and riven by a civil war that left the centre of the capital, Tbilisi, in ruins. Pervasive corruption and mismanagement fostered political and economic instability until 2003, when a former justice minister, Mikheil Saakashvili, led an uprising known as the Rose revolution. Elected president in 2004, he pushed Georgia towards the west, setting membership in the EU and Nato as top foreign policy goals. On the domestic front, the new leadership curbed corruption but economic growth continued to lag. Meanwhile, Georgia’s relations with Russia took a nosedive. In 2006, Russia jolted Georgia’s economy by banning imports of Georgian wine and mineral water. Bilateral tension remained high until summer 2008, when the two countries fought a five-day war over the territory of South Ossetia, which ended with Russian troops occupying parts of Georgia proper. In domestic politics, the use of force by police to break up a mass protest in late 2007 prompted suggestions that Saakashvili was not respecting basic democratic rights and criticism of his governing style grew. In parliamentary elections in 2012 his supporters lost their majority to a reformist coalition backed by billionaire entrepreneurBidzina Ivanishvili. In 2013, term limits sent Saakashvili into retirement, and Giorgi Margvelashvili became president. Constitutional amendments introduced in 2013 weakened presidential authority in favour of enhanced powers for parliament. Unlike Ukraine, Georgia completed negotiations on its initial EU association agreement in 2013, placing the country on a firmer path towards full membership.