China Entering 2018

HR: Mao’s Bloody Revolution

 

2018 came like all years before it with parties and celebrations sweeping the globe as the clock struck midnight in time zone after time zone, 2018 however brought with it sets of geopolitical crossroads not seen since the turn of the last century. American power and influence, which has since the end of WW2 and especially since the close of the Cold War been the final say in all global matters, is slowly being eroded by poor foreign policy choices since the turning of the 21st century. The war on Terror obviously being the biggest example of this, with 20-year multitrillion dollar wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the global deployment of troops and an overarching influence towards non-consequential and an almost intentional ignorance towards the rise of various regional powers. This is to say nothing of self-inflicted wounds like the election of Donald Trump who has openly questioned and challenged key American economic and strategic interests like NATO, free trade and has shown the world the bitter internal divide gripping the global hegemon.

The global reaction to this increasingly multipolar world is as interesting as it is terrifying, as the old powers of Europe debate whether to unify their efforts or turn inwards, Putin’s Russia continues to be able to influence and hit well above its weight class and even smaller powers having much more say in global affairs, Canada taking the head of TPP negotiations being one of the better examples of such. The biggest and most talked about up and coming powerhouse is China, who since the 70s and 80s has been maturing into what will quickly become the largest economy on the planet despite its rocky beginning.

In the documentary we watched in class, Mao’s Bloody Revolution, detailed the colossal and expensive failures that were the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. With millions of lives lost and an unknowable (but obviously disgustingly high) amount of economic/intellectual potential, its shocking that within a few decades of Mao’s death China would be predicted to overtake the United States in economic might and now, potentially even (while a stretch in the short term) global leadership. After lecture on the January 29, and the writings of Chong and Wang, I would attribute China’s incredible rise to power with the successful policies and reforms instituted by primarily, Mao’s and Richard Nixon’s decision to open China up for trade and the economic/political reforms of Deng Xiaoping.

The decision to reengage with the west shows an interesting turn in Chinese nationalism of which Mao was most definitely a product of. Chong describes this nationalism as being unique amongst other nations as Chinese nationalism focuses around ‘righting the wrongs’ of the century of humiliation, dealt out by the hands of western powers like the United States, Germany, England, France and Portugal and powers aspiring to western ideals of imperialism like Japan. To quote directly Chong describes a central tenant to Chinese identity was that “foreign actors consistently and unequivocally victimized China” and thus to reopen relations with the US, is an interesting move but has undoubtedly prevented the colossal failures of the 1960s to follow China into the later years of the 20th century.

Most notable is the rise of Deng Xiaoping and his “Socialism with Chinese Characteristics” which while any bleeding heart, true leftist would decry as selling out the country, has undoubtedly been one of the most successful national policies in the past several decades. His decentralizing reforms were also large successes, described by Wang as moving from local government to businesses and to society at large, laid the seeds of growth in what should have been a stagnant and slowly crumbling communist nightmare like the Soviet Union. Deng’s ever-increasing push towards stability and development is undoubtedly the key to China’s success story. Back to the modern day, Xi Jinping, the current leader of China continues on Deng’s example of pushing for long term stability and carefully building and growing China as a regional power, exemplified by his building of the Chinese military and activity in Korea/South China Sea and as an international power by engaging in trade deals and economic development across the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

China and Global Authoritarianism, or ‘Despotism with Chinese Characteristics’

HR: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/26/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-authoritarianism.html

https://www.cfr.org/blog/china-likely-enter-another-long-period-severe-dictatorship

Yu (2014) and Vogel readings

Last week came potentially the biggest singular shakeup in the geopolitical landscape perhaps since 9/11 and only continues to reaffirm that a slow-approaching death may be looming on the liberal democratic order that has prevailed since the end of WWII. The dramatic shake up is the abolition of term limits on Xi Jinping, the head of state of the People’s Republic of China, effectively making him ruler for life if he so chooses. On the world stage this is yet another blow to the liberal world order as well as resounding roundhouse kick to the western idea that China could, given enough time, liberalize and enter the world stage as a true member and believer in the institutions that currently dominate it. China has in one day upended that notion and with it perhaps (as Xi says directly) puts the Chinese system of authoritarianism in direct competition with western democracy for other developing states to follow. The move also reaffirms the massive push of the world towards authoritarianism and nationalism; with several strategic states already embracing the ideology through their heads of state, namely Erdogan in Turkey, Putin in Russia, cracks are appearing across Europe with the rise of the right-wing in Hungary, Poland, Italy, Greece, even the UK as well as the USA with the election of Trump. The lack of outcry from the west leaves me personally scratching my head and deeply concerned with the seeming voluntary American abandonment of the global system we built and fought for.

But what does this mean for China directly? First and foremost, it gives Xi Jinping more power then has ever been enjoyed by one individual since Mao in the PRC and shows a denouncing of the legitimizing factor term limits have for a government, especially one for a country attempting to gain recognition in the global community. The sharp break from norms established by Deng and reinforced since then must certainly be a cause for alarm among Chinese elites. Vogel’s work on Deng’s leadership style, pushing for moderation and building policy with consideration of public support, seems to paint a picture of a China aiming more in the line with what it is trying to escape from in the Mao era. To sum up best, the Council on Foreign Relations described the policy switch as such: “There must be great grumbling and concern among the country’s elite and educated, especially since the same Party “proposals” that have eliminated term limits have also confirmed the establishment of the National Supervisory Commission that will make the regime more repressive and more free of legal restraints than ever, imposing what amounts to “the Inquisition with Chinese characteristics.”