Diseases have not remained the same throughout time – new strands have emerged, diseases have exited and then returned, and even entirely new diseases have emerged for the first time. This plays an important, ongoing role for researchers and health care workers alike to find, quickly but correctly, proper diagnosis and treatment. Without such continued monitoring, infectious diseases can spread to an extent that may become hard to manage by the time health care workers catch on to the presence of an emerging or re-emerging disease.

Clearly, it would be easier for us all if diseases did remain the same throughout history; vaccines would be more effective, science would have more time/resources to place on modern issues rather than trying to accurately predict the future, etc. However, with the diverse world we live in, combined with the ability of viruses, bacteria. fungi, and bacteria to change and mutate, it is not entirely surprising that this is not the case. Earth consists of many different environments: dry, tropical, hot, cold, forests, marine, etc. There are also many different species, each coming with its own capacity to host viruses, bacteria, etc.: chimpanzee, chicken, bird, cow, lizard, pig, rabbit, and the list goes on. Zoonotic diseases, or diseases that begin in these animal species before ‘spilling over’ to humans, account for some of the worst historic as well as modern diseases: Herpes, Nipah, Rabies, etc. (Killer Viruses PPT and film notes).

With the nature already considered, that is not to leave humans, socially and culturally, off the hook. Outbreaks can be exacerbated drastically by human behavior and decision-making (or lack thereof). For instance, the presence of ‘anti-vaccinationists’ poses a threat to everyone else, involved with the crowd or not. Believing there are risks of vaccination that outweigh the benefits, anti-vaccinationists choose to avoid vaccinations, thus increasing their chance of contracting a given disease.

Additionally, an ‘outbreak culture’ has been seen to emerge after outbreaks, “driven by multiple factors, from political motivation and life-threatening fear to personal gain and isolation. Behaviors as a result of outbreak culture can lead to confusion, collusion, and culpability amid an already chaotic situation” (outbreak culture article). This has hindered response efforts towards AIDS in the 1980s, SARS in 2002, the avian flu in 2006, and Zika. As for Ebola, in 2015, nearly all Ebola responders who were surveyed “mentioned that political and interpersonal challenges at times slowed their responses. Many said they feared the politics more than the virus. More than a quarter reported either witnessing, hearing about, or falling victim to illegal or unethical tactics while responding to the outbreak” (outbreak culture article).

Moreover, the increased globalization likewise poses a serious risk for increased transmission. Compared to the 1970s, modern planes now hold nearly 10 times more passengers (Is America Ready for the Next Pandemic article), with many of them coming from and going to different areas. This leads to the rapid spread of what could have once been a local infection to a multi-area infection. On a grand scale, this could be one of the biggest factors underlying a potential pandemic. Thus, regardless of how prepared we may believe ourselves to be, there are numerous factors that could hinder our ability to effectively manage a pandemic, should one arise. In fact, as The Atlantic writes in an article, The Next Plague Is Coming. Is America Ready?, “Yet just 10 years ago, the virus that the world is most prepared for caught almost everyone off guard. In the early 2000s, the CDC was focused mostly on Asia, where H5N1—the type of flu deemed most likely to cause the next pandemic—was running wild among poultry and waterfowl. But while experts fretted about H5N1 in birds in the East, new strains of H1N1 were evolving within pigs in the West. One of those swine strains jumped into humans in Mexico, launching outbreaks there and in the U.S. in early 2009.”

Thus, with all of this being said, to effectively react to a pandemic, it would require rapid detection, diagnosis, treatment, research, wise human behavior (i.e., vaccines), and limited interactions between infected and uninfected individuals. Moreover, outbreak culture would have to be kept under control. To do so would require “a deliberate choice that is thoughtfully implemented, governed by core principles, and guided by realism, honesty, transparency, and accountability. It requires eliminating the middle-man and sometimes intentional barriers that impede the organization and collaboration needed to quell an outbreak” (outbreak culture article) – policy that is not currently in place.