It feels weird that the election is winding down. It doesn’t seem that long ago that I was watching Donald Trump declare his candidacy from the couch in my living room. And yet here we are, the race is over and in a campaign season full of controversy the race is a lot closer than anyone thought it would be back after the conventions let alone even 3 weeks ago. Not long ago it seemed that Hillary Clinton had the election in the bag with a significant lead over what appeared to be a tanking Donald Trump coming off of a feud with a Gold Star father and an Entertainment Tonight clip where Trump suggested that he sexually assaulted women.
However, in that time FBI director James Comey has announced that the FBI is re-opening their investigation of Hillary Clinton’s emails after new discoveries during an investigation into Anthony Weiner. Since then she has seen her lead evaporate and the race come down to just a few states, several of which are toss ups.
Going into the election tomorrow Donald Trump has several positive factors going for him. Primarily is the momentum he has built up since the FBI investigation re-opened. The announcement galvanized his supporters, and Hilary Clinton’s slip in the polls in recent days can only motivate Trump supporters to get out to the polls and vote, especially in the swing states where he has been campaigning heavily in recent days. Now that Trump supporters can see a path to victory, they will be even more motivated to get out to the polls and vote. Mike Pence’s strong performance in the Vice Presidential debate is another positive for Trump as it was able to re-attract conservatives to his campaign. I think we will see traditional conservatives come back out, although reluctantly, while the new voting demographics that Trump has attracted will turn out heavily. The Entertainment Tonight clip will still hurt him with woman voters however, a voting block that Trump could have taken due to little enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton.
What was Hillary Clinton’s election to lose a few weeks ago now has become a tight race, one that she very well might lose. Her failure to put Trump away during the 3rd Presidential debate has come back to haunt her. Donald Trump was coming off of one of the most damning sound-bites in the history of sound bites, followed up by over a dozen sexual assault and harassment allegations. She should have massacred him in the last debate, but instead lacked an aggressiveness to go after Donald Trump allowing him to flip the narrative to her defense of her husband against his own sexual assault allegations. Now, like a boxer that failed to put away his opponent when he was listing on the ropes, Clinton is fighting for her campaigns life as several key states that were once leaning blue have gone to toss up or even in Ohio’s case, gone to the Republicans. One positive factor she has going for is that there is a vicious social media campaign against Donald Trump being conducted by several outlets, in addition to celebrities. These will be seen particularly by millennials, a large portion of which will be voting in their first election and will likely turn out in droves.
The election effectively comes down to Donald Trump’s ability to turn 4 states, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and New Hampshire for a total of 54 electoral votes. Larry Sabato has all states going to Clinton in his prediction, however Nate Silver has the States effectively as toss ups, with Clinton possessing a higher chance to win in all, but not by more than a few percentage points, with the exception of New Hampshire. However Real Clear Politics average has Trump up 0.8 points in Nevada, with CNN saying he is up +7.0. In North Carolina the Real Clear Average has Trump up 1.0 with polls showing a Clinton lead never exceeding 2 points. Florida, with the most electoral votes at stake at 29 has a Real Clear verage of Trump +0.2, but with an outlier poll throwing it. Without the outlier, the lead goes to Clinton but once again, an election will likely be decided by Florida. Finally in New Hampshire, the Real Clear Average shows a 0.6 point lead for Clinton, but with a massive outlier in a UNH poll that has the Former Secretary of State up 11.0 points. More likely, the race is a dead toss up.
My prediction for the election is Clinton 297-Trump 241 with Trump taking 3 of the 4 true swing states in New Hampshire, Nevada, and North Carolina. I think the large immigrant population in Florida will deny him the victory there, and by extension the election.
Popular Vote Expectation: Clinton 52.3% Trump 47.7%
Voter Turnout: 46%