Finally, 24 hours from when I write this post we will (hopefully) know who our next president is. The popular consensus reflects that this has been a particularly long and painful election season, and we are all anxious to see it end. According to fivethirtyeight.com, the Democratic party is strongly favored to win. Hillary Clinton is predicted to win 301.4 electoral votes, while Donald Trump only has 235.8. This indicates Clinton has a 70.8% chance of winning the election, versus Trump’s 29.2% chance. It seems like Clinton will win tomorrow by a landslide, with a 6.6% chance of a landslide victory to Trump’s 0.3%, however the popular vote is a closer race. Trump is predicted to win 45.1% of the popular vote, while Clinton is predicted to hold a 48.6% popular vote. The closeness of the competition to win the popular vote is not necessarily indicative of what the actual outcome of the election will be, as we saw in the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. Gore narrowly won the popular vote with 50,999,897 votes, against Bush’s 50,456,002. However, the deciding factor was that Bush secured 271 electoral votes, beating Gore’s 266. We see a similar situation developing in the 2016 election, however Clinton’s decisive hold over the majority of the electoral votes gives her a very promising lead over Trump, regardless of if he can manage to win the popular vote.
It is interesting to note the contention in North Carolina, which is currently balanced 54.7% in favor of Clinton, versus 45.4% in favor of Trump. In the 2012 presidential election, North Carolina contributed its 15 electoral votes to Romney and the Republican party, yet now the state is leaning towards the Democratic party. A very similar situation is playing out in Florida, a highly competitive swing state which could potentially contribute a hefty 29 electoral votes. Just like in North Carolina, Florida is just 10% leaning towards Clinton, potentially being a point of contention on election day, similar to the 2000 election. If Trump is able to win both North Carolina and Florida, he will be boosted to 279 electoral votes, putting him in range of the Presidency.
On election day, voter turnout will ultimately decide who will head to the White House. Many factors contribute to voter turnout, such as proximity to your voting district, belief in voter efficacy, free time and interest in the election. Graduate-level educated black or white individuals over the age of 45 are the most likely to vote for Clinton in tomorrow’s election, however this demographic is few and far between in the United States. Therefore we typically see the elderly, comfortably employed and educated investing the most attention in the electoral process and with the highest voter turnout rate. According to the New York Times article, Presidential Election: The Day Before the Storm, Clinton has the strong support of women, young voters, ethnic minorities and the college educated. All these groups have a high likelihood of showing up at polls tomorrow, with the exception of the youngsters, playing to Clinton’s advantage. Trump’s supporters are mainly white men, evangelical Christians, and blue-collar workers. These voters statistically are less likely to vote, however what they lack in turn out, they make up for in numbers. Whites still make up the vast majority of American demographics at 72.4%, according to the 2010 census, and low-income workers are more numerous than the college educated. The fracturing of the Republican party that we saw during this election season may prove damaging to voter turnout however, given that not all republicans feel that they can give Trump their vote.
I feel that the debates and vice-presidential candidates will have little impact on the voter turnout on Election Day. Neither candidate had a particularly moving performance during the debates, with most voters already resolute in their decisions. The debates and nomination of Vice-Presidential candidates may spur a few individuals who were on the fence regarding showing up to vote, however I do not believe it will have any kind of dramatic impact. Mike Pence, a well-respected Republican, may have the most influence on republican turnout, because of his marginal ability to rally Republican support.
As far as scandals go, I think Trump did damage the likelihood of women to vote for him on the 8th. His Access Hollywood scandal did perhaps the most damage to his public appearance and rapport with women, discrediting any attempt to come across as a respectful, dignified gentleman. Clinton has more success when it comes to presenting a polished, proper and palatable public image. This being said, there is an understanding that she has her fair share of a scandalous political past, however Clinton has made up for this more effectively than Trump, by making every effort to carefully create an appealing appearance.
Regardless of how this election turns out, I am simply relieved this long campaign process will be finally over. The next step will be to learning to accept the candidate that makes it to the White House.